Blog #7

Duverger’s Law

            Duverger’s law states that the electoral rules of any given state determines the number of effective parties. This law argues that single-member district plurality (SMDP) rules will produce two effective parties while proportional representation rules allow for more effective parties, depending whether or not there are multiple social identities (Shively 2012).  In order to determine the validity of this law, I analyzed the electoral rules of Paraguay.  Through an analysis of the overall structure of Paraguay’s electoral rules, which is based on proportional representation, I determined that Duverger’s law is correct in stating that a state’s electoral rules does determine the number of effective parties.

            Using a political formula to determine the number of effective political parties in Paraguay, I calculated that Paraguay, which has a proportional representation system, has 3.422 effective parties, which supports Duverger’s law. In Paraguay’s last elections in 2008, eight parties gained at least one seat in the Chamber of Deputies, which is the lower chamber in the Paraguayan legislative branch. The Chamber of Deputies has a total of 80 seats with the Colorado Party obtaining 30 seats, the Liberal Party obtaining 27, the National Union Party obtaining 15 seats, and five other parties obtaining three or less seats in the last elections (Inter-Parliamentary Union 2012). Although a total of eight parties obtained seats in the chamber, the actual number of effective parties in Paraguay is only slightly above three because only three parties gained a strong majority of the seats and the other five parties were weaker in the elections. Therefore, Paraguay’s proportional representation system provided more than two effective parties, which proves Duverger’s law to be correct.

            In order to determine how many seats each party receives in the elections, Paraguay uses the D’Hondt method. This formula takes the number of seats available in each district and uses the number of votes each party receives in order to distribute a proportional number of seats to each party (Wikipedia 2012). Because Paraguay is divided into 18 districts, each district is granted a specific number of seats according to the population of the district. In Paraguay, the district magnitude ranges from one seat to nineteen seats in each of the 18 districts (all adding up to 80 in total) (Carr 2008). Depending on the percentage of votes each party receives in a district, they will be granted a number of seats according to that percentage, which is based on the D’Hondt method (Wikipedia 2012). This provides greater equality and a bigger voice for the parties that are smaller than the three major parties in Paraguay.

            Paraguay does not use a hybrid system, but its electoral systems use a closed/nonpreferential list structure (Inter-Parliamentary Union 2012). Each political party provides a list of candidates that can be elected up to the number of seats available in the chamber. Although citizens do not vote directly for a specific candidate, they vote for a specific political party, and depending on the percentage of votes each party receives in each of the 18 districts, politicians will be elected according to the where they are listed on the “closed list.” For example, if the Colorado Party gained three seats in one district and two in another, the first five candidates on the party’s list would be elected into the Chamber of Deputies. Also, the small number of votes a party may receive does not limit any party in Paraguay. No thresholds exist and any party is free to run for government office, giving each party a fair opportunity to gain a seat in the legislative branch (Carr 2008).

Because Paraguay strives to provide equal representation for many parties and ideas, the proportional representation system proves that Duverger’s law is correct in stating that more effective parties will form with this type of system. Although five of the parties obtained three or less seats in the Chamber of Deputies, their voices are still heard in the making of public policy. Unlike a SMDP system where only two voices are heard, Paraguay’s proportional representation gives all of its citizens an opportunity to speak up.

REFERENCES

Carr, Adam. 2008. Republic of Paraguay: Legislative election of 20 April 2008. http://

psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/p/paraguay/paraguay20081.txt (accessed November 1, 2012).

Inter-Parliamentary Union. 2012. Paraguay: Chamber of Deputies. http://www.ipu.org/

parline-e/reports/2249_A.htm (accessed November 1, 2012).

Shively, W. Phillips. 2012. Power and choice: An introduction to political science. New York:

McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.

Wikipedia. 2012. D’Hondt method. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method

(accessed November 1, 2012).