Duverger's Law

Blog 7: Duverger's Law

            According to Duverger's Law states that Single-Member District Plurality rules should produce two effective parties. In France they use SMDP voting for their National Assembly. Therefore France should have a two-party system if Duverger’s Law is accurate.

            The citizens of France directly elect the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. The district magnitude ranges from 3 to 14 as more populated districts have more representatives and the less populated districts receive fewer representatives much like in the United States system for regulating district magnitude. France ultimately doesn't have a simple plurality of majority formula or system. France is based off a sort of hybrid double-ballot system. It is very complex and detailed or at least more so than is common in the U.S. It begins by requiring a candidate to get a majority of the votes, and if they do not a second round is then required in which only candidates who had 1/8 or more of the votes can participate. In the second round a candidate only needs to receive a plurality of the votes in order to win (Election). France has an open/preferential structure and a threshold of 1/8 of the votes in the second round vote but none in the first round of voting.

            All this having been proved, France should essentially have only two effective parties. However, after doing the complex calculations I found that France currently has 2.83 effective parties (Gallagher). If the number were smaller and just slightly over 2 I would say that France could fit Duverger’s Law but as it is closer to having 3 effective political parties it doesn't exactly fit the mold. France is leaning more to the multi-party side of the scale here. Even though France does not have proportional representation they still end up with the resulting multiparty system. Because France is a hybrid and is not strictly majority or plurality rule it has an effect on the parties represented and affecting the National Assembly. Still, I think it could be argued that France is similar enough to the U.S. in many ways and in many of the essential political ways that should influence its effective number of parties and make it reflect more closely the U.S. in this aspect as well. The U.S. has almost exactly 2 effective parties. France seems to differ just enough to create a multiparty system even though they use SMDP voting. Duverger’s Law does not correctly classify France and doesn't seem to work in this case.

Sources

"Election (political Science) : Plurality and Majority Systems." Encyclopedia Britannica Online. Encyclopedia Britannica, n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. <http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/182308/election/229023/Plurality-and-majority-systems>.

Gallagher, Michael, 2012. Election indices dataset. 1 Nov. 2012.

<http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/index.php>.

"IPU PARLINE Database: FRANCE (Assemblée Nationale), Electoral System." IPU PARLINE Database: FRANCE (Assemblée Nationale), Electoral System. N.p., n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. <http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2113_B.htm>.