Duverger’s Law claims that the
effective or influential number of parties in any electoral district is a
function of the electoral rules. Electoral systems can be broadly divided into
two categories: single-member-district plurality systems (SMDP) and
proportional representation (PR) systems. SMDP systems occur where a state is
divided into districts with roughly equal populations, and a single candidate
is elected from each district by a plurality (rather than a majority) of votes
(Samuels). PR electoral systems occur under a system where "political
parties representation in the legislative body is roughly proportional to their
strength in the electorate” (Samuels). According to Duverger’s Law, SMDP
systems produce two effective parties, while PR systems produce more. To test
this law, we will consider the electoral rules for the United Kingdom,
specifically the lower chamber of Parliaments: the House of Commons, which is
classified as a SMDP system.
Electoral
systems are governed by certain rules that determine which parties or
candidates win office as a result of any kind of a vote. These electoral rules
include the district magnitude, the formula used to allocate the seats according
to the vote, whether the system is a hybrid, the list structure, and if there
are any thresholds. The district magnitude is how many seats are allocated to
each electoral district. In the United Kingdom, there are 650 electoral
districts, with a single member elected from each district (IPU Parline). So
the district magnitude (m)= 1.
The
formula used to determine who wins the seat in the House of Commons is a
plurality, or “first-past-the-post” rule (IPU Parline). Basically whichever
candidate receives the most votes, wins. As opposed to a PR formula where the
seats which be allocated proportionally to the number of votes a party
receives. The United Kingdom is definitely not a hybrid system, like Germany.
It doesn’t combine any elements of SMDP and PR system together, it completely a
SMDP system regarding to the election of members to the House of Commons.
The
list structure is whether people vote from a list of parties and just vote for
the candidates directly. In closed/nonpreferential list structures, people vote
for a party and the party leaders decide which candidates are put in office. In
an open/preferential list structure, voters decide which candidates are put in
office directly. In the United Kingdom, people vote for the candidates directly,
not the parties, so it is an open list structure (UK Parliament). There are not any thresholds in the UK, where
parties have to get a minimum percentage of votes to have them count or to
retain your party registration. In the UK, you can run as an independent or
with a party and the votes will still count.
Given
these electoral rules, the United Kingdom is definitely a
single-member-district-plurality system. So according to Duverger’s Law, the
United Kingdom should have two effective parties. A formula can be used to
determine the effective number of parties: Neff= 1/Σ(p2),
where p= proportion of seats won by each party. In the 2010 election for the
House of Commons, the Conservative Party won 47% of the seats, the Labour Party
won 39%, and the Liberal Democrat Party won 8% of the seats, all of the other
47+ parties or independent candidates were negligible (Wikipedia Election
World). Using this formula, it can be determined that the United Kingdom has
2.63 effective parties. So basically the UK has two effective parties, the
Conservative and Labour Parties, with a third somewhat influential party (the
Liberal Democrats). Using the United Kingdom as a test case, it turns out that
the Duverger’s Law is correct; SMDP electoral systems tend to produce two
effective parties.
Sources:
"United Kingdom- House of
Commons." IPU Parline. Inter-Parliamentary Union, n.d. Web. 1 Nov.
2012.
"General Elections." - UK
Parliament. N.p., n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012.
<http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/>.
"Elections in the United
Kingdom." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 27 Oct. 2012. Web. 02
Nov. 2012.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_the_United_Kingdom>.
Samuels, David J. Comparative
Politics. N.p.: Pearson, 2013. Print.
I think this was well written, so good job. You explained your thesis and then clearly backed that up. I had no idea that the United Kingdom was an SMDP so thank you for that information.
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